Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)Cboe Indices
5.06 %
-0.03
(-0.667%) ⇩
(July 17, 2026, 1:59 p.m.
CDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 18, 2026, 12:43 a.m. CDT
The 30-year Treasury yield is executing a historic breakout, surging past its 52-week high of 5.197% and trading aggressively above both its 50-day (5.00%) and 200-day (4.84%) averages. This aggressive upward momentum, driven by persistent inflation pressures and a 'wrong way' correlation with equities, has pushed the index into a dangerous overbought zone near its yearly peak. While the statistical forecast suggests a negligible 0.37% drift over the next 45 days, the sheer velocity of the price action relative to long-term means implies a high probability of a sharp mean reversion or volatility spike, as the market tests the upper limits of investor tolerance for long-duration debt. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.014325 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.016138 |
| AutoETS | 0.016139 |
| MSTL | 0.016648 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 61% |
| H-stat | 0.76 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.376 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 0.62 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 2.5724173 |
| All Time High | 15.21 |
| All Time Low | 0.837 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 0 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 0 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 0 |
| Average Volume | 0 |
| Average Volume10Days | 0 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 0 |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | LOW |
| Day High | 0.0 |
| Day Low | 0.0 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | CGI |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/Chicago |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | CDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 5.0035 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.060500145 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.012091565 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 2.5724173 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 5.197 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -0.1329999 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.025591668 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 0.0 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 5.064 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 0.0 - 5.197 |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 224,860,800,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | Cboe Indices |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -18,000,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Long Name | Treasury Yield 30 Years |
| Market | usir_market |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_INDEXTYX |
| Open | 0.0 |
| Previous Close | 5.098 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Quote Type | INDEX |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.03399992 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.6669266 |
| Regular Market Day High | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 0.0 - 0.0 |
| Regular Market Open | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 5.098 |
| Regular Market Price | 5.064 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,314,795 |
| Regular Market Volume | 0 |
| Short Name | Treasury Yield 30 Years |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | ^TYX |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 0 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 4.84372 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.22028017 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.04547748 |
| Type Disp | Index |
| Volume | 0 |